I'm just trying to get everything straightened out in my mind - are the toshiyori buy-back rules in force already, or will that only happen when (if...) the Kyokai changes over to a public interest company? And given the financial dire straits the Kyokai is in as reported here, can the buy-back even happen at all?
The buyback regulations aren't on the books yet, as the exact framework still needs to be decided (supposedly by summer); so far they've only made the general determination that they will implement that plan. As for whether it would come into effect right away or only on the date their legal entity changes, I have no idea.
Their bad financial performance in fiscal 2011 wasn't a surprise, so I assume that was already reflected in all the discussions of the last few months.
My crystal ball says that the Kyokai will change on the last possible date, i.e. 11/30/2013, and also introduce the buyback rules only then, which would work to their advantage in several ways:
- Allows the current board to serve out their term, as it's probably more defensible to stick to the Kyokai's usual re-election schedule (next one in Jan 2014) if there's as little time as possible between the voiding of their current organizational framework and the first "new" election.
- Allows the large number of oyakata who are set to retire in the near future - no less than 12 between Oct 2012 and Nov 2013, among them several outgoing riji and deputy riji - the opportunity to be the last ones to sell their kabu under the old rules. (Which you may either interpret as craven protection of self-interest, or as a gesture of goodwill from everybody else for all the internal criticism they've had to go through because of this whole, probably unavoidable, buyback thing.)
- Protects the Kyokai from having to shell out big money for those 12 shares (possibly 13, depending on how quickly Tagonoura-kabu is snapped up) right at the start of the new regulations. In 2014 and 2015 only three oyakata are set to retire, which would be a much better time to phase that in.