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Heisei Hopefuls


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#1 Asashosakari

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Posted 24 May 2010 - 18:11

As you may know there has yet to be a sekitori who was born in the Heisei era, i.e. since January 8, 1989, so I figured why not track the contenders for the honour? However, to give this thread some staying power (as it looks like the question may well be answered soon) I'm going to generalize the idea a bit and keep going afterwards - in other words, on a running basis we'll track all those rikishi who are younger than the most recently born sekitori until somebody succeeds in taking over that title, at which point the list will get pruned of all those older ones he managed to pass and we move on with a new yardstick rikishi.

The current champion is Masuraumi, born 1988/10/15, who made his juryo debut back in March. That was long overdue in a way as the baton was previously held for over three years by one Wakanoho. So if a phenom comes along the wait for the next successful candidate could be quite long, but normally there should be a fairly frequent procession.

Besides only featuring rikishi younger than Masuraumi the list below is restricted to rikishi who have at least reached makushita, although they don't currently need to be ranked in that division. (Seeing whose progress has stalled can be interesting, too, after all.) The number given in brackets after the birthdate is the rikishi's age ranking among all the rikishi that are part of the list. Only Tamadaiki is younger than Masuraumi but was still born prior to the Heisei era, so "Heisei Hopefuls" should be accurate enough.

Barring extraordinary circumstances I'm not planning to do mid-basho updates here as I do on the Persistence Watch, but if anybody else wants to do commentary (no matter if one-off or regularly), you're welcome. And general comments on these kids are welcome as well, of course, in fact they're what this thread is supposed to encourage. :-) And if there are any issues with the presentation that can be improved, let me know. So without further ado...

Heisei Hopefuls - current yardstick: Masuraumi (1988/10/15, debut 2004.03, shin-juryo 2010.03)

Rikishi

Heya

DOB (Rank)

Debut

HiRk

2009.07

2009.09

2009.11

2010.01

2010.03

2010.05

TakayasuNaruto1990/02/28 (11)2005.03Ms10Ms44e 4-3Ms36w 5-2Ms27e 4-3Ms22w 4-3Ms18w 5-2Ms10w 4-3
ChiyonokuniKokonoe1990/07/10 (8)2006.05Ms24Sd41e 6-1Ms54e 2-5Sd18e 4-3Sd8e 4-3Ms58e 6-1Ms24e 4-3
TamadaikiKataonami1988/11/02 (21)2007.03Ms24Ms30e 3-4Ms37e 4-3Ms31w 4-3Ms25e 3-4Ms32e 4-3Ms24w 3-4
MasunoyamaChiganoura1990/11/01 (6)2006.07Ms25Ms25e 2-5Ms39e 4-3Ms32w 3-4Ms38e 4-3Ms32w 4-3Ms25e 6-1
TakanoiwaTakanohana1990/02/26 (12)2008.11Ms13Sd85e 6-1Sd27w 4-3Sd14w 7-0 YMs13w 3-4Ms19e 3-4Ms26e 2-5
RyudenTakadagawa1990/11/10 (5)2006.03Ms9Ms46w 6-1 DMs19w 4-3Ms15e 5-2Ms9w 3-4Ms15e 2-5Ms29e 4-3
TokizakuraNakamura1989/07/10 (17)2005.03Ms35Sd9e 3-4Sd27e 4-3Sd14e 4-3Sd5e 4-3Ms56e 5-2Ms38e 3-4
KotoyukiSadogatake1991/04/02 (3)2008.03Ms26Sd3e 5-2Ms43w 3-4Ms51w 5-2Ms37w 5-1-1Ms26w 2-5Ms40w 3-4
TochiyashikiKasugano1989/07/07 (18)2008.03Ms30Ms56e 5-2Ms41e 5-2Ms30e 0-0-7Sd10w 4-3Ms60e 5-2Ms43e 3-4
BugendaiMusashigawa1989/01/21 (20)2004.05Ms43Sd21e 5-2Ms57e 4-3Ms47w 2-5Sd10e 5-2Ms52w 4-3Ms43w 3-4
HishofujiNakamura1989/07/14 (16)2005.03Ms29Ms39w 5-2Ms29w 1-6Ms59e 4-3Ms52w 5-2Ms39w 3-4Ms47w 4-3
KairyuTagonoura1990/03/01 (10)2005.03Ms29Sd46e 4-3Sd31e 5-2Sd6e 4-3Ms59e 6-1Ms29e 1-6Ms53w 3-4
TakageppoTakanohana1990/04/19 (9)2009.01Ms59Jd50w 6-1Sd84w 5-2Sd48w 4-3Sd34w 4-3Sd20w 5-2Ms59e 2-5
MankajoKasugayama1990/02/10 (13)2005.03Ms43Ms53w 4-3Ms44w 3-4Ms52w 3-4Sd4w 2-5Sd27e 5-2Sd2w 4-3
ChiyoarashiKokonoe1991/07/12 (1)2007.03Ms50Ms56w 2-5Sd20e 5-2Ms57w 4-3Ms50w 0-7Sd25w 4-3Sd13w 6-1
KawanariOguruma1991/07/07 (2)2007.03Ms38Ms47w 4-3Ms38e 2-5Ms54e 4-3Ms47w 3-4Ms54e 2-5Sd16w 4-3
KumagaiIsenoumi1990/08/25 (7)2006.03Ms50Sd16w 3-4Sd34e 4-3Sd19e 5-2Ms58e 4-3Ms50e 1-6Sd21e 4-3
HigoarashiKise1989/08/20 (14)2006.05Ms53Ms59e 3-4Sd15e 2-5Sd39w 4-3Sd24w 4-3Sd11w 3-4Sd26e 4-3
DewahayateDewanoumi1989/01/31 (19)2004.03Ms50Sd26e 4-3Sd13w 3-4Sd26w 4-3Sd15w 4-3Sd5w 2-5Sd29e 4-3
AsahishoOshima1989/07/21 (15)2005.03Ms45Ms45e 3-4Ms56w 2-5Sd22e 4-3Sd11e 3-4Sd23e 3-4Sd39e 6-1
KotokenseiSadogatake1991/01/06 (4)2006.03Ms50Sd14e 4-3Sd3e 3-4Sd13w 3-4Sd26e 3-4Sd41w 3-4Sd55w 2-5

Three rikishi will be joining the list for Nagoya:

Rikishi

Heya

DOB

Debut

HiRk

2009.07

2009.09

2009.11

2010.01

2010.03

2010.05

TochinohamaKasugano1989/01/292007.03Sd5Jd14w 5-2Sd82e 4-3Sd62w 2-4-1Sd91e 5-2Sd58e 6-1Sd5w 4-3
ByakkoNakamura1989/07/112005.03Sd11Sd37w 4-3Sd23w 3-4Sd36w 4-3Sd22e 3-4Sd36w 5-2Sd13e 5-2
KeiOnomatsu1990/03/102008.01Sd16Sd59w 4-3Sd43w 4-3Sd27e 4-3Sd16w 3-4Sd30e 3-4Sd46e 6-1

Edited by Asashosakari, 26 May 2010 - 17:55.


#2 Randomitsuki

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Posted 24 May 2010 - 18:35

Great work, as per usual. :-)

If I may suggest a slight change in presentation: how about displaying KK in a bold font, and leave the color code for highest rank achieved until then? This would be more in line with the revered REFERENCE.
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#3 Asashosakari

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Posted 24 May 2010 - 19:55

If I may suggest a slight change in presentation: how about displaying KK in a bold font, and leave the color code for highest rank achieved until then? This would be more in line with the revered REFERENCE.

The problem is that the standard forum font (at least on my system) gets wider, not merely bolder, so IMHO the table data gets very hard to read as it lines up even less than it already does, e.g.

Ms20w 4-3
Ms15e 3-4
Ms22e 5-2
Ms11w 2-5

BTW, it is patterned after S-Ref, but the queries, not the career profiles. :-)

Edit: What I could do is highlight the "HiRk" field in a different colour if the rikishi is on a new high rank for the current basho. Would that work?

Edited by Asashosakari, 24 May 2010 - 20:01.


#4 Asashosakari

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Posted 24 May 2010 - 20:55

If anyone's interested, here are the record holders since (appropriately enough) the start of the Heisei era. Haru 1995 was special in that three shin-juryo renewed the old record at once, so I'm listing all of them. Data given are birthdate, sekitori debut basho and eventual career-high rank (still open to revision for several newer arrivals, of course). More gaps of longer than two years than I expected...

Kyokugozan   1968/09/18, 1988.11 (M9)
Takanohana   1972/08/12, 1989.11 (Y)
Rikio        1972/12/20, 1993.07 (M4)
Tsurunofuji  1973/01/29, 1994.11 (J9)
Kyokushuzan  1973/03/08, 1995.03 (K)
Gokenzan     1973/07/12, 1995.03 (J6)
Daihisho     1973/08/30, 1995.03 (M10)
Chiyotaikai  1976/04/29, 1995.07 (O)
Tochiazuma   1976/11/09, 1996.05 (O)
Miyabiyama   1977/07/28, 1998.11 (O)
Aminishiki   1978/10/03, 2000.01 (S)
Asashoryu    1980/09/27, 2000.09 (Y)
Asasekiryu   1981/08/07, 2002.07 (S)
Hakuho       1985/03/11, 2004.01 (Y)
Kisenosato   1986/07/03, 2004.05 (S)
Tochiozan    1987/03/09, 2006.09 (K)
Wakanoho     1988/07/08, 2007.01 (M1)
Masuraumi    1988/10/15, 2010.03 (J14)

Edited by Asashosakari, 24 May 2010 - 20:56.


#5 Doitsuyama

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Posted 24 May 2010 - 21:08

Interesting subject. And I think Miyabiyama might be really special in that list, or?

#6 Randomitsuki

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Posted 24 May 2010 - 21:38

Here is some additional information on the club members:

Takayasu:
Large and light allrounder with a slight penchant for nage techniques and hatakikomi. In Natsu, he only lost against Tochinowaka, Nakanokuni, and Shironoryu. Not only did two of these aite finished with 6-1, they also are somewhat better according to my strength ratings. Actually, his four wins were also against rikishi with slightly better ratings, so it was quite a good basho. Two of his four wins came through hatakikomi, however, so maybe he's a little henka-ish?
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Maegashira 3

Chiyonokuni:
Similar build like Takayasu. Does a lot of hatakikomi/hikiotoshi stuff. In Natsu, I had him as the outsider in all his bouts except the one against Takanoiwa, so his 4-3 was surprisingly good. In terms of strength ratings, his best wins were against veteran Kaonishiki and ex-talent Minami.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Komusubi

Tamadaiki:
And another lightweight, but in contrast to Takayasu and Chiyonokuni he hardly ever employs evasive sumo. In Natsu he did exactly as well as strength ratings would have predicted, viz. 3-4. Good wins against experienced Makushitans Shoketsu and Kitazono, but no so good losses against Heisei hopefuls Masunoyama and Takanoiwa.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Maegashira 7

Masunoyama:
Wasn't he the guy with a Filipino ancestry? In any case, he is on talent watches for quite some time now. Not the tallest, but already very heavy at 162 kg. Loves straight sumo (almost no nage, almost no shifty stuff). 6-1 from a career high looks very promising indeed, particularly as strength ratings would have predicted a 1-6 record against the same opposition! Nonetheless, he did not have any opponents from the upper third of Makushita, and promptly none of his opponents had more than 1700 Elo points (which would be the typical level in the upper third of Makushita). That being said, he will probably face serious problems in Nagoya.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Komusubi

Takanoiwa:
Leightweight Mongolian with a very fast rise through the banzuke. Specializes on (surprise surprise) nage waza. After winning the Sandanme yusho he received his third MK in a row, and it is slightly worrying that the records went from 3-4 to 2-5 the lower he was ranked. But then again, I did not see him as a favorite in any of his Natsu bouts.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Maegashira 1

Ryuden:
Very tall, lanky guy, and still one of the youngest in Asashosakari's club. Wins more than 60% of his bouts with yorikiri/yoritaoshi, so he will be loved by classicists. Should have gone 3-4, but finished 4-3, so that’s promising. Strength-wise, his strongest aite was Tochitsubasa, and Ryuden defeated him in a KK/MK deciding bout on day 13. Might have good nerves.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Komusubi

Tokizakura:
Smallish, but quite heavy oshi-man. Was close to his career high, so a 3-4 finish in Natsu isn't too shabby. I would have expected a 2-5 against his opposition, another indication that the general trend is slightly upward.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Makushita 2

Kotoyuki:
Small, and way too light. Given his body, I am surprised to see that he loves a mixture of oshi-zumo (almost 70% wins) with some interspersed hatakikomi/-otoshi stuff. Should have won 4-3 in Natsu rather than 3-4, as his opposition wasn't terribly good. Shouldn't have lost against Suzaku, by far his weakest opponent in May.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Maegashira 10

Tochiyashiki:
Oshi-man with average physique and lots of potential. But the 3-4 record in Natsu might be an indication that he still suffers from an injury that made him sit out Kyushu basho on a career high. FWIW, he should have beaten all his Natsu opponents according to Elo ratings, so either the strength ratings are crap, or he is still recovering.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Ozeki

Bugendai:
The former Sonoda is one of the lightest rikishi in Makushita at 107.5 kg. Technically, he is an allrounder with no particular preferences. At a career high, he wasn't favorite in any of his Natsu bouts, so a 3-4 is quite impressive. Strength-wise, his best win came against club member Tochiyashiki. However, as he is one of the oldest club members, his sekitori potential is somewhat questionable.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Makushita 23. And if he ever makes it to Juryo, I reserve the bragging rights for identifying him in this three-and-a-half year old Bench Sumo comment.

Hishofuji:
The behemoth from Kobe is a mainstay in lower Makushita. He has one of the highest yorikiri win percentages which appears to be somewhat rare for a rikishi of his physique. Given his opponents, a 5-2 in Natsu would have been possible. The difference between 4-3 and 5-2 was the unexpected loss against underachieving Nankairiki.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Makushita 2

Kairyu:
The allrounder with the full shikona Kairyu Genki wasn't that genki in Natsu basho. The last time that he was in similar banzuke territory, he finished 6-1, but this time he could not even get a kachi-koshi. Then again, I would have expected a 1-6 against his Natsu aite, so a 3-4 might be OK. His Natsu slate features a quality win against Wakaryusei who himself should have some potential for the Makushita-joi.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Juryo 1

Takageppo:
The more successful of the Taka twins received his first career make-koshi in Natsu Basho. Takageppo is small and rather light, and from his short career it looks as if he favors oshi-zumo. Finished 2-5 which is one shiroboshi less than I would have expected, but nothing out of the ordinary happened in his bouts.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Maegashira 1

Mankajo:
There's still that old bet with aderechelsea and the goat about Mankajo. However, the 205 kg colossus didn't make much progress in the last year, so adere (and the goat) are probably on the safe side. It's surprising that a guy of Mankajo's epic proportions is a nage specialist, but what do I know? His Natsu performance of 4-3 from high Sandanme was actually quite good, as he faced five Makushita guys (and would have gone 1-6 according to strength ratings).
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Makushita 2

Chiyoarashi:
The youngest club member is small and relatively light. He has a preference for oshi-zumo, and after going 6-1 from Sandanme 13 he will be elevated to a new career high. This was really a breakthrough basho, as Chiyoarashi was not favored in any of his bouts! He overcame a 150 Elo point deficit in his first bout against Kazafuzan, and also defeated heavily favored aite like former Makushita-joi members Tochinoyama, Matsumidori, and Fujimoto. By far the best performer of all club members in Natsu.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Maegashira 3

Kawanari:
Kawanari is a heavyweight from Oguruma-beya, so he might become Kawakaze upon entering Juryo. He favors yotsu-zumo. In Natsu Basho he finished 4-3 which is more or less exactly what could have been expected. However, in the past he also had 4-3 records from half a division higher, so he'll have to step up a bit in the next few bashos.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Maegashira 3

Kumagai:
A guy with an average sumo physique and average technical repertoire, Kumagai will approach Makushita again (where he already had one KK). Even his Natsu performance was average, as he beat exactly those rikishi that he should have beaten, and lost against those that he should have lost against.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Juryo 11

Higoarashi:
A heavyweight from Kise-beya, Higoarashi has a well-rounded repertoire. He'll have to hurry a little bit, as he did not really make much progress over the last year. Against his Natsu opposition one could have expected a 6-1 (the only real strong opponent was Takunishiki), so the 4-3 including a fusen is not too great to look at.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Juryo 13

Dewahayate:
Very light allrounder rikishi from Dewanoumi-beya who doesn't look like a future sekitori to me. His two forays into Makushita are at least one year away, and both ended in clear make-koshi. Natsu basho had him at his lowest rank since Aki 2008. Nonetheless, his strength rating was so low that he should have gone 2-5 against his opposition – in that regard a 4-3 isn't too bad. Dewahayate defeated Wakarikido and Toyohikari who are both stronger on paper.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Makushita 23

Asahisho:
With an average body for a Sandanme guy, Asahisho loves the sneaky stuff of –otoshi and hatakikomi. The 6-1 from Sd39 will propel him back to Makushita where he already was one year ago. 6-1 sounds good, but strength-wise he actually shouldn't have lost the one bout on shonichi against Ryusei. In other words, his opposition was rather mediocre.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Makushita 13

Kotokensei:
The short oshi-guy from Sadogatake gained 12 kg over the last year, so now he has a very solid build for a Sandanme guy. When he still was shikonaed Kotowatanabe, he shot through the banzuke like a shinkansen, but since his name change he suffered one KK and seven MK. To make matters worse, his last make-koshi was a 2-5 from mid-Sandanme, so he isn't going anywhere soon. And to make matters even worser, my calcs had him at a 6-1 against his aite. Among the more embarrassing losses was a shonichi defeat at the hands of ailing Hokutoiwa (who retired this basho).
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Juryo 11, but I bet that’s an overestimation.

And here are the three new club members:

Kei:
A very light Onomatsu-rikishi and nage specialist, Kei looked like the next wonderboy, until injuries threw him back on the banzuke twice. After posting 6-1 from mid-Sandanme, he will have his Makushita debut in Nagoya. Still, his Natsu performance was very solid rather than very great. He was the favorite in his first six bouts, and actually his 6th opponent who came from low Sandanme was technically his weakest one. Only in his final bout he was overpowered by Takunishiki.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Makushita 28

Byakko:
Byakko is on the light side, but with a healthy appetite the yotsu-man gained about 20 kg in the last two years. A 5-2 in Haru brought him very near to his career high, and from there he managed another 5-2 in Natsu basho, thereby securing a Makushita debut. The 5-2 was quite promising, as strength ratings would have predicted a 3-4 against his aite. His standout win was against up-and-comer Aisaka.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Makushita 41

Tochinohama:
The former Hamauzu is an injury-prone Kasugano-wrestler with a strong body and a penchant for oshi-zumo. He now had his third KK in a row which moved him from lowest Sandanme to lowest Makushita. Finishing KK on a career high is always notable, and that's what he did in Natsu Basho. Then again, relatively soft schedules should have made a 5-2 possible, too, as only Inoue (against whom he lost) and Wakakasuga (whom he won against) were higher in strength ratings.
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Makushita 13

Edited by Randomitsuki, 24 May 2010 - 21:42.

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#7 Randomitsuki

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Posted 24 May 2010 - 22:41

If I may suggest a slight change in presentation: how about displaying KK in a bold font, and leave the color code for highest rank achieved until then? This would be more in line with the revered REFERENCE.

What I could do is highlight the "HiRk" field in a different colour if the rikishi is on a new high rank for the current basho. Would that work?

I would have been interested more in visual salience of the frequency of career high occurrences rather than the current status (or the frequency of KK occurrences). But all this is a matter of taste, and as I am in possession of a certified attestation of tastelessness, you better keep the stuff the way it is.
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#8 Asashosakari

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Posted 24 May 2010 - 22:46

I would have been interested more in visual salience of the frequency of career high occurrences rather than the current status (or the frequency of KK occurrences). But all this is a matter of taste, and as I am in possession of a certified attestation of tastelessness, you better keep the stuff the way it is.

Well, what's also possible is to have a different colour-coding for the pre-basho version of the table. I was already thinking of customizing that a bit with a "positions gained/lost" column (among list members, that is, not in absolute banzuke terms), so perhaps having that edition as a "career focus" and the post-basho ones as a "results focus" might work. Or too confusing? At a minimum I'd have to use a different colour, I guess...

Many thanks for the lengthy basho summary. :-)

Edited by Asashosakari, 24 May 2010 - 22:48.


#9 Asashosakari

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Posted 24 May 2010 - 22:53

On another note, I just backtracked a bit to Masuraumi's takeover of the torch baton from Wakanoho - he would have been the third-oldest on the list at the time. The two rikishi eliminated by his ascension to juryo? Kyokushuho and Seiro.

(And as a reminder of just how awesome Wakanoho's rise was, when he reached juryo in 2007.01 nobody younger than him had even reached makushita.)

Edit: Oops, Masuraumi was the fourth-oldest. Karatsuumi also falls in between him and Wakanoho age-wise. (Missed him because I didn't think to check below sandanme...)

Edited by Asashosakari, 24 May 2010 - 23:08.


#10 Azumashida

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Posted 25 May 2010 - 06:47

Many thanks to both of you for this, great as always! :-)

Takayasu:
Large and light allrounder with a slight penchant for nage techniques and hatakikomi. In Natsu, he only lost against Tochinowaka, Nakanokuni, and Shironoryu. Not only did two of these aite finished with 6-1, they also are somewhat better according to my strength ratings. Actually, his four wins were also against rikishi with slightly better ratings, so it was quite a good basho. Two of his four wins came through hatakikomi, however, so maybe he's a little henka-ish?
Pre-Natsu predicted career high: Maegashira 3


I don't think he's that light anymore, he looks more like around 140 kg, which I would call mid-weight to ozumo standards. The last official weight we have for him (cf. Sumo Reference) is 130 kg in March 2009. Here is a bout he had at that time, he looks a bit lighter than he does in his recent bouts (see below). An increase in weight of about 10 kg in the past 14 months would be in line with his 7 kg increase over the previous 12.
Regarding a possible henka-habit, after watching his available bouts with some attention (on babyfaths's youtube channel, linked by Raishu in another thread) I haven't noticed anything that would confirm that. His wins this basho against Takateru and against Homarefuji were both very well executed hatakikomi after spirited, forward-aiming sumo. The only bout I recall that looks like a henka (without being one technically speaking) is this win over Maeta, some time ago.
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#11 nomadwolf

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Posted 25 May 2010 - 09:01

If I may suggest a slight change in presentation: how about displaying KK in a bold font, and leave the color code for highest rank achieved until then? This would be more in line with the revered REFERENCE.

The problem is that the standard forum font (at least on my system) gets wider, not merely bolder, so IMHO the table data gets very hard to read as it lines up even less than it already does, e.g.


Alas, that is always how proportional fonts get bolder.

You could use Underline, but that'll make it look pretty messy too.

#12 Pippooshu

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Posted 25 May 2010 - 11:36

ASASHOSAKARI IS A MITH!
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#13 Yubinhaad

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Posted 25 May 2010 - 18:24

ASASHOSAKARI IS A MITH!

Then who has been sending all of these posts to the Forum?

Seriously, @Asashosakari, great work on this data. I'm particularly happy to see Chiyonokuni doing so well, since I've been cheering him on almost from the start of his career.

#14 Gusoyama

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Posted 27 May 2010 - 12:46

great work in this thread by both Asashosakari and Raondomitsuki.

#15 Sokkenaiyama

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Posted 27 May 2010 - 15:33

I'm surprised I don't see Chiyootori on that list of yours. With this basho's performance he should reach makushita, I think. And he's still only 17 and a half.
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#16 Randomitsuki

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Posted 27 May 2010 - 15:46

I'm surprised I don't see Chiyootori on that list of yours. With this basho's performance he should reach makushita, I think. And he's still only 17 and a half.

The criterion for inclusion in the club is a career high in Makushita, something that Chiyootori hasn't achieved yet. While I don't think he will become a club member in Nagoya, he's expected to join the list during this year.
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#17 Sokkenaiyama

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Posted 27 May 2010 - 19:14

Actually, you're right. I wrongfully assumed he'd make makushita from sd32 with 5-2. Turns out the odds are stacked against it - not one 5-2 from sd32 made it since 1961, and there were plenty. Thanks for the clarification. As for Chiyootori, I think he'll develop into a fine pusher/thruster if Sanoyama provides him with proper guidance. He even looks kinda bad-ass in the few pictures I've seen of him.
He was the ruler of the mountain.

#18 Asashosakari

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Posted 27 May 2010 - 20:15

Actually, you're right. I wrongfully assumed he'd make makushita from sd32 with 5-2. Turns out the odds are stacked against it - not one 5-2 from sd32 made it since 1961, and there were plenty.

The in/out lines for promotion are pretty fixed, currently at Sd11 for a 4-3, Sd25 for a 5-2 and Sd50 for a 6-1, and you're practically guaranteed to be promoted to makushita if you have at least those ranks/wins. Occasionally somebody from one or two ranks lower will make it, but that requires a large number of intais or 0-0-7's in the divisions above; normally there are "too many" mandatory promotion candidates as is and they have to over-demote some makushita makekoshi just to make room for them all.

For comparison: 4-3 at Sd11 / Sd12 / Sd13, 5-2 at Sd25 / Sd26-Sd28, 6-1 at Sd46-Sd50 / Sd51-Sd55. At the bottom of the Sd46-Sd50 query you can spot one "exception" (Sd48e -> Sd3w) from the year 2000 - which isn't really one, it just an artifact of a change in handling around that time. The 6-1 corridor used to extend only to Sd45 until 10 years ago. In other words, after a KK lower-division rikishi will usually know pretty well which division they're going to be ranked in the next time (or at least their oyakata will).

#19 Sokkenaiyama

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Posted 27 May 2010 - 20:27

This is fascinating stuff. I had no idea things were so strict down there.
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#20 shoutenzan

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Posted 29 May 2010 - 14:22

This is a great thread. One way to limit it would be to exclude university and high school graduates, and to keep it to Japanese heisei born rikishi.
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#21 Asashosakari

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Posted 05 July 2010 - 14:39

A lot of juryo spots will be at stake in Nagoya basho, and leader Takayasu might well have a shot at sneaking in even from Ms6e. New high ranks are achieved by the leading trio, the three newcomers, and Chiyoarashi who achieved his first 6-1 above jonidan in May.

Heisei Hopefuls for Nagoya 2010 - current yardstick: Masuraumi (1988/10/15, debut 2004.03, shin-juryo 2010.03)

+/-

Rikishi

Heya

DOB (Rank)

Debut

HiRk

2009.09

2009.11

2010.01

2010.03

2010.05

2010.07

0TakayasuNaruto1990/02/28 (12)2005.03Ms6Ms36w 5-2Ms27e 4-3Ms22w 4-3Ms18w 5-2Ms10w 4-3Ms6e
2MasunoyamaChiganoura1990/11/01 (6)2006.07Ms9Ms39e 4-3Ms32w 3-4Ms38e 4-3Ms32w 4-3Ms25e 6-1Ms9e
1ChiyonokuniKokonoe1990/07/10 (8)2006.05Ms20Ms54e 2-5Sd18e 4-3Sd8e 4-3Ms58e 6-1Ms24e 4-3Ms20w
2RyudenTakadagawa1990/11/10 (5)2006.03Ms9Ms19w 4-3Ms15e 5-2Ms9w 3-4Ms15e 2-5Ms29e 4-3Ms24w
2TamadaikiKataonami1988/11/02 (24)2007.03Ms24Ms37e 4-3Ms31w 4-3Ms25e 3-4Ms32e 4-3Ms24w 3-4Ms33e
9ChiyoarashiKokonoe1991/07/12 (1)2007.03Ms37Sd20e 5-2Ms57w 4-3Ms50w 0-7Sd25w 4-3Sd13w 6-1Ms37e
4HishofujiNakamura1989/07/14 (17)2005.03Ms29Ms29w 1-6Ms59e 4-3Ms52w 5-2Ms39w 3-4Ms47w 4-3Ms40e
3TakanoiwaTakanohana1990/02/26 (13)2008.11Ms13Sd27w 4-3Sd14w 7-0 YMs13w 3-4Ms19e 3-4Ms26e 2-5Ms45e
2TokizakuraNakamura1989/07/10 (19)2005.03Ms35Sd27e 4-3Sd14e 4-3Sd5e 4-3Ms56e 5-2Ms38e 3-4Ms47e
2KotoyukiSadogatake1991/04/02 (3)2008.03Ms26Ms43w 3-4Ms51w 5-2Ms37w 5-1-1Ms26w 2-5Ms40w 3-4Ms51e
9AsahishoOshima1989/07/21 (16)2005.03Ms45Ms56w 2-5Sd22e 4-3Sd11e 3-4Sd23e 3-4Sd39e 6-1Ms52e
3TochiyashikiKasugano1989/07/07 (20)2008.03Ms30Ms41e 5-2Ms30e 0-0-7Sd10w 4-3Ms60e 5-2Ms43e 3-4Ms52w
3BugendaiMusashigawa1989/01/21 (23)2004.05Ms43Ms57e 4-3Ms47w 2-5Sd10e 5-2Ms52w 4-3Ms43w 3-4Ms53e
NewByakkoNakamura1989/07/11 (18)2005.03Ms53Sd23w 3-4Sd36w 4-3Sd22e 3-4Sd36w 5-2Sd13e 5-2Ms53w
1MankajoKasugayama1990/02/10 (14)2005.03Ms43Ms44w 3-4Ms52w 3-4Sd4w 2-5Sd27e 5-2Sd2w 4-3Ms54e
NewTochinohamaKasugano1989/01/29 (22)2007.03Ms56Sd82e 4-3Sd62w 2-4-1Sd91e 5-2Sd58e 6-1Sd5w 4-3Ms56w
NewKeiOnomatsu1990/03/10 (10)2008.01Ms58Sd43w 4-3Sd27e 4-3Sd16w 3-4Sd30e 3-4Sd46e 6-1Ms58e
2KawanariOguruma1991/07/07 (2)2007.03Ms38Ms38e 2-5Ms54e 4-3Ms47w 3-4Ms54e 2-5Sd16w 4-3Sd3w
7KairyuTagonoura1990/03/01 (11)2005.03Ms29Sd31e 5-2Sd6e 4-3Ms59e 6-1Ms29e 1-6Ms53w 3-4Sd5w
3KumagaiIsenoumi1990/08/25 (7)2006.03Ms50Sd34e 4-3Sd19e 5-2Ms58e 4-3Ms50e 1-6Sd21e 4-3Sd7w
3HigoarashiKise1989/08/20 (15)2006.05Ms53Sd15e 2-5Sd39w 4-3Sd24w 4-3Sd11w 3-4Sd26e 4-3Sd14e
3DewahayateDewanoumi1989/01/31 (21)2004.03Ms50Sd13w 3-4Sd26w 4-3Sd15w 4-3Sd5w 2-5Sd29e 4-3Sd16w
10TakageppoTakanohana1990/04/19 (9)2009.01Ms59Sd84w 5-2Sd48w 4-3Sd34w 4-3Sd20w 5-2Ms59e 2-5Sd23w
3KotokenseiSadogatake1991/01/06 (4)2006.03Ms50Sd3e 3-4Sd13w 3-4Sd26e 3-4Sd41w 3-4Sd55w 2-5Sd83w


#22 Asashosakari

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    Sumo is a very good thing. Though better with affordable video.

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Posted 25 July 2010 - 06:59

Not a lot of good news for the higher-ranked hopefuls...notable exceptions from the makekoshi festival above Ms50 were only Masunoyama with an impressive 4-3 at his career-high rank, and Takanoiwa's bounceback basho from the steady descent following his sandanme yusho four basho ago. Arguably also positive is Chiyoarashi's 3-4 at a new career high, considering he'd made a big 6-1 jump into it, but then again one of his wins this basho came by fusen and he was makekoshi even before the final bout. The guys in lowest makushita and high sandanme did better, so the positional rankings will be jumbled quite a bit for Aki. The top spot will be claimed by Masunoyama, second place is up for grabs between Takayasu and Takanoiwa.

Heisei Hopefuls for Nagoya 2010 - current yardstick: Masuraumi (1988/10/15, debut 2004.03, shin-juryo 2010.03)

Rikishi

Heya

DOB (Rank)

Debut

HiRk

2009.09

2009.11

2010.01

2010.03

2010.05

2010.07

TakayasuNaruto1990/02/28 (12)2005.03Ms6Ms36w 5-2Ms27e 4-3Ms22w 4-3Ms18w 5-2Ms10w 4-3Ms6e 2-5
MasunoyamaChiganoura1990/11/01 (6)2006.07Ms9Ms39e 4-3Ms32w 3-4Ms38e 4-3Ms32w 4-3Ms25e 6-1Ms9e 4-3
ChiyonokuniKokonoe1990/07/10 (8)2006.05Ms20Ms54e 2-5Sd18e 4-3Sd8e 4-3Ms58e 6-1Ms24e 4-3Ms20w 2-5
RyudenTakadagawa1990/11/10 (5)2006.03Ms9Ms19w 4-3Ms15e 5-2Ms9w 3-4Ms15e 2-5Ms29e 4-3Ms24w 2-5
TamadaikiKataonami1988/11/02 (24)2007.03Ms24Ms37e 4-3Ms31w 4-3Ms25e 3-4Ms32e 4-3Ms24w 3-4Ms33e 2-5
ChiyoarashiKokonoe1991/07/12 (1)2007.03Ms37Sd20e 5-2Ms57w 4-3Ms50w 0-7Sd25w 4-3Sd13w 6-1Ms37e 3-4
HishofujiNakamura1989/07/14 (17)2005.03Ms29Ms29w 1-6Ms59e 4-3Ms52w 5-2Ms39w 3-4Ms47w 4-3Ms40e 2-5
TakanoiwaTakanohana1990/02/26 (13)2008.11Ms13Sd27w 4-3Sd14w 7-0 YMs13w 3-4Ms19e 3-4Ms26e 2-5Ms45e 6-1
TokizakuraNakamura1989/07/10 (19)2005.03Ms35Sd27e 4-3Sd14e 4-3Sd5e 4-3Ms56e 5-2Ms38e 3-4Ms47e 3-4
KotoyukiSadogatake1991/04/02 (3)2008.03Ms26Ms43w 3-4Ms51w 5-2Ms37w 5-1-1Ms26w 2-5Ms40w 3-4Ms51e 3-4
AsahishoOshima1989/07/21 (16)2005.03Ms45Ms56w 2-5Sd22e 4-3Sd11e 3-4Sd23e 3-4Sd39e 6-1Ms52e 5-2
TochiyashikiKasugano1989/07/07 (20)2008.03Ms30Ms41e 5-2Ms30e 0-0-7Sd10w 4-3Ms60e 5-2Ms43e 3-4Ms52w 5-2
BugendaiMusashigawa1989/01/21 (23)2004.05Ms43Ms57e 4-3Ms47w 2-5Sd10e 5-2Ms52w 4-3Ms43w 3-4Ms53e 5-2
ByakkoNakamura1989/07/11 (18)2005.03Ms53Sd23w 3-4Sd36w 4-3Sd22e 3-4Sd36w 5-2Sd13e 5-2Ms53w 3-4
MankajoKasugayama1990/02/10 (14)2005.03Ms43Ms44w 3-4Ms52w 3-4Sd4w 2-5Sd27e 5-2Sd2w 4-3Ms54e 5-2
TochinohamaKasugano1989/01/29 (22)2007.03Ms56Sd82e 4-3Sd62w 2-4-1Sd91e 5-2Sd58e 6-1Sd5w 4-3Ms56w 4-3
KeiOnomatsu1990/03/10 (10)2008.01Ms58Sd43w 4-3Sd27e 4-3Sd16w 3-4Sd30e 3-4Sd46e 6-1Ms58e 3-4
KawanariOguruma1991/07/07 (2)2007.03Ms38Ms38e 2-5Ms54e 4-3Ms47w 3-4Ms54e 2-5Sd16w 4-3Sd3w 4-3
KairyuTagonoura1990/03/01 (11)2005.03Ms29Sd31e 5-2Sd6e 4-3Ms59e 6-1Ms29e 1-6Ms53w 3-4Sd5w 3-4
KumagaiIsenoumi1990/08/25 (7)2006.03Ms50Sd34e 4-3Sd19e 5-2Ms58e 4-3Ms50e 1-6Sd21e 4-3Sd7w 6-1
HigoarashiKise1989/08/20 (15)2006.05Ms53Sd15e 2-5Sd39w 4-3Sd24w 4-3Sd11w 3-4Sd26e 4-3Sd14e 3-4
DewahayateDewanoumi1989/01/31 (21)2004.03Ms50Sd13w 3-4Sd26w 4-3Sd15w 4-3Sd5w 2-5Sd29e 4-3Sd16w 5-2
TakageppoTakanohana1990/04/19 (9)2009.01Ms59Sd84w 5-2Sd48w 4-3Sd34w 4-3Sd20w 5-2Ms59e 2-5Sd23w 5-2
KotokenseiSadogatake1991/01/06 (4)2006.03Ms50Sd3e 3-4Sd13w 3-4Sd26e 3-4Sd41w 3-4Sd55w 2-5Sd83w 6-1

Two newcomers will be joining the list for Aki, both coming in from rather low in sandanme. After his twin brother Takageppo already had his first taste of makushita two basho ago, sandanme yusho winner Takatoshi will now join him, and will actually be ranked higher than his brother for the first time since they started a year and a half ago. Takageppo will also be returning to the third division. The other newbie is (my adoptee) Kyokutaisei who has a surprising 6-1 breakout performance in the mid-low sandanme area he'd been bouncing around the last few tournaments.

Rikishi

Heya

DOB (Rank)

Debut

HiRk

2009.09

2009.11

2010.01

2010.03

2010.05

2010.07

TakatoshiTakanohana1990/04/192009.01Sd10Jd11w 4-3Sd93w 6-1Sd34e 4-3Sd20e 4-3Sd10e 2-5Sd35w 7-0 Y
KyokutaiseiOshima1989/10/182008.01Sd42Sd78e 3-4Sd92e 4-3Sd74w 5-2Sd42w 3-4Sd57w 4-3Sd43e 6-1


#23 Azumashida

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Posted 25 July 2010 - 08:06

Thanks for this update, this is definitely one of my favorites threads here! :-) Sad to see that so many of these talents struggled so much this basho (especially Takayasu and Ryuden). Another potential hopeful who had a very disappointing performance is Nogami, 1-6 as Sd23e. Very surprising for a guy who when just 18 years old was unbeaten in one of the most competitive mae-zumo of recent years (with the older Aoki, Takarafuji, Azumaryu, Naoe, and the three high-profile hopefuls Takanoiwa, Takatoshi and Takageppo)...

On the brighter side, Kotookuyama is also getting very close to the list with his 4-3 as Sd15w - this most likely won't take him to makushita yet though (there's been about 40 deshi who were not promoted with this same performance since the last one was in 1986). But he's definitely a guy to follow, as he's younger than all the guys on the list at present! And he's just had 4 kachikoshi in a row.
"It's not the destination, it's the journey"
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#24 Asashosakari

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Posted 31 August 2010 - 20:59

Like last basho there's a glut of hopefuls in the Ms50 region, but courtesy of the mostly bad results at the top of the list and some strong records in the aforementioned Ms50 corridor another large bunch of rikishi has formed in the Ms30's for Aki. Masunoyama takes over the top spot from Takayasu (who hangs on to #2 thanks to some very lenient demotion procedures), and while I personally doubt he'll be making a push for juryo just yet, the threat of seeing the yardstick age obliterated by our 6th-youngest list member did cause me to rethink the framework for this thread a bit. More on that in a moment.

The big winner of this update is Kumagai whose 6-1 allowed him to bypass both the Ms50 and the Ms30 groups and jump all the way to #5. Takanoiwa also scored six wins and gets to take another crack at upper-high makushita after his first foray appeared to come a bit too early in his development. At the other end of the table Kotoyuki somehow managed to lose 10 spots even though he barely dropped in the banzuke. My adoptee Kyokutaisei joins the list at #19 and Ms54w, likely not high enough to survive a 3-4 with his makushita ranking intact, while Takatoshi makes his grand entrance at #4 and Ms23e following his sandanme yusho - it'll be interesting to see whether he manages to fare better up there than stablemate Takanoiwa did earlier this year.

Heisei Hopefuls for Aki 2010 - current yardstick: Masuraumi (1988/10/15, debut 2004.03, shin-juryo 2010.03)

+/-

Rikishi

Heya

DOB (Rank)

Debut

HiRk

2009.11

2010.01

2010.03

2010.05

2010.07

2010.09

1MasunoyamaChiganoura1990/11/01 (6)2006.07Ms3Ms32w 3-4Ms38e 4-3Ms32w 4-3Ms25e 6-1Ms9e 4-3Ms3e
1TakayasuNaruto1990/02/28 (13)2005.03Ms6Ms27e 4-3Ms22w 4-3Ms18w 5-2Ms10w 4-3Ms6e 2-5Ms13w
5TakanoiwaTakanohana1990/02/26 (14)2008.11Ms13Sd14w 7-0 YMs13w 3-4Ms19e 3-4Ms26e 2-5Ms45e 6-1Ms19e
NewTakatoshiTakanohana1990/04/19 (9)2009.01Ms23Sd93w 6-1Sd34e 4-3Sd20e 4-3Sd10e 2-5Sd35w 7-0 YMs23e
15KumagaiIsenoumi1990/08/25 (7)2006.03Ms31Sd19e 5-2Ms58e 4-3Ms50e 1-6Sd21e 4-3Sd7w 6-1Ms31w
5AsahishoOshima1989/07/21 (18)2005.03Ms32Sd22e 4-3Sd11e 3-4Sd23e 3-4Sd39e 6-1Ms52e 5-2Ms32e
5TochiyashikiKasugano1989/07/07 (22)2008.03Ms30Ms30e 0-0-7Sd10w 4-3Ms60e 5-2Ms43e 3-4Ms52w 5-2Ms32w
5BugendaiMusashigawa1989/01/21 (25)2004.05Ms35Ms47w 2-5Sd10e 5-2Ms52w 4-3Ms43w 3-4Ms53e 5-2Ms35w
6ChiyonokuniKokonoe1990/07/10 (8)2006.05Ms20Sd18e 4-3Sd8e 4-3Ms58e 6-1Ms24e 4-3Ms20w 2-5Ms36e
5MankajoKasugayama1990/02/10 (15)2005.03Ms37Ms52w 3-4Sd4w 2-5Sd27e 5-2Sd2w 4-3Ms54e 5-2Ms37e
7RyudenTakadagawa1990/11/10 (5)2006.03Ms9Ms15e 5-2Ms9w 3-4Ms15e 2-5Ms29e 4-3Ms24w 2-5Ms39e
6ChiyoarashiKokonoe1991/07/12 (1)2007.03Ms37Ms57w 4-3Ms50w 0-7Sd25w 4-3Sd13w 6-1Ms37e 3-4Ms44w
3TochinohamaKasugano1989/01/29 (24)2007.03Ms47Sd62w 2-4-1Sd91e 5-2Sd58e 6-1Sd5w 4-3Ms56w 4-3Ms47w
9TamadaikiKataonami1988/11/02 (26)2007.03Ms24Ms31w 4-3Ms25e 3-4Ms32e 4-3Ms24w 3-4Ms33e 2-5Ms48e
7DewahayateDewanoumi1989/01/31 (23)2004.03Ms50Sd26w 4-3Sd15w 4-3Sd5w 2-5Sd29e 4-3Sd16w 5-2Ms50w
2KawanariOguruma1991/07/07 (2)2007.03Ms38Ms54e 4-3Ms47w 3-4Ms54e 2-5Sd16w 4-3Sd3w 4-3Ms51e
8TokizakuraNakamura1989/07/10 (21)2005.03Ms35Sd14e 4-3Sd5e 4-3Ms56e 5-2Ms38e 3-4Ms47e 3-4Ms51w
11HishofujiNakamura1989/07/14 (19)2005.03Ms29Ms59e 4-3Ms52w 5-2Ms39w 3-4Ms47w 4-3Ms40e 2-5Ms54e
NewKyokutaiseiOshima1989/10/18 (16)2008.01Ms54Sd92e 4-3Sd74w 5-2Sd42w 3-4Sd57w 4-3Sd43e 6-1Ms54w
10KotoyukiSadogatake1991/04/02 (3)2008.03Ms26Ms51w 5-2Ms37w 5-1-1Ms26w 2-5Ms40w 3-4Ms51e 3-4Ms56w
2TakageppoTakanohana1990/04/19 (9)2009.01Ms58Sd48w 4-3Sd34w 4-3Sd20w 5-2Ms59e 2-5Sd23w 5-2Ms58e
8ByakkoNakamura1989/07/11 (20)2005.03Ms53Sd36w 4-3Sd22e 3-4Sd36w 5-2Sd13e 5-2Ms53w 3-4Ms59e
6KeiOnomatsu1990/03/10 (11)2008.01Ms58Sd27e 4-3Sd16w 3-4Sd30e 3-4Sd46e 6-1Ms58e 3-4Sd5e
5KairyuTagonoura1990/03/01 (12)2005.03Ms29Sd6e 4-3Ms59e 6-1Ms29e 1-6Ms53w 3-4Sd5w 3-4Sd15e
1KotokenseiSadogatake1991/01/06 (4)2006.03Ms50Sd13w 3-4Sd26e 3-4Sd41w 3-4Sd55w 2-5Sd83w 6-1Sd26e
5HigoarashiKise1989/08/20 (17)2006.05Ms53Sd39w 4-3Sd24w 4-3Sd11w 3-4Sd26e 4-3Sd14e 3-4Sd29w


And now for another addition, for which I'm still soliciting names: Originally I was just going to say "oh well!" if a very young rikishi was going to reach juryo and re-set the yardstick, but since the thread will become kind of boring in case Masunoyama actually reaches juryo in four weeks and truncates the list to just five names, I'll be adding an "overflow" table of sorts. Same inclusion rule as before, the rikishi must have reached makushita at some point, but the age limit won't be the yardstick rikishi's birthdate, but "23 and under". In other words, this list will be cleaned up of its oldest members after each basho. This list will be quite a hodge-podge of strong prospects who have aged a bit, semi-prospects who may or may not turn into something, some guys who aren't really noteworthy and will have only a short stay on the list (i.e. because they made their makushita debut barely before turning 24), and even the occasional collegiate star who manages to make a mark in the short time he has between his sumo debut and turning 24 (Ryuonami and Chiyozakura may do that soon). All in all the two lists will combine to about 50 names, which should still be possible to handle without making the thread too messy. Just consider the first table "guys to watch" and the second "guys to keep an eye on". :-)

(Not Quite) Heisei Hopefuls for Aki 2010 - age 23 and under

+/-

Rikishi

Heya

DOB (Rank)

Debut

HiRk

2009.11

2010.01

2010.03

2010.05

2010.07

2010.09

0FujiazumaTamanoi1987/04/19 (41)2003.03Ms2Ms20e 5-2Ms15w 4-3Ms11e 3-4Ms16w 5-2Ms7w 4-3Ms2w
3NionoumiKitanoumi1986/12/16 (46)2002.03Ms6Ms25w 3-4Ms33e 4-3Ms28w 4-3Ms22e 5-2Ms16e 5-2Ms6w
5IkioiIsenoumi1986/10/11 (47)2005.03Ms14Ms41e 4-3Ms35e 5-2Ms25e 3-4Ms30w 5-2Ms22w 4-3Ms14w
0KyokushuhoOshima1988/08/09 (28)2007.05Ms13Ms26w 4-3Ms22e 4-3Ms18e 2-5Ms32e 6-1Ms13w 3-4Ms17w
5AzumaryuTamanoi1987/05/12 (39)2008.11Ms18Ms52e 4-3Ms45e 5-2Ms33e 3-4Ms39e 5-2Ms26e 4-3Ms18e
4TochihiryuKasugano1987/04/23 (40)2006.03Ms9Sd7w 5-2Ms49e 6-1Ms23e 4-3Ms18w 5-2Ms9w 2-5Ms18w
4KagamioKagamiyama1988/02/09 (32)2003.07Ms23Ms30w 2-5Ms46e 5-2Ms34w 2-5Ms50w 5-2Ms33w 4-3Ms25e
11HokuoTakadagawa1986/09/18 (49)2004.11Ms31Sd16e 3-4Sd32e 6-1Ms49e 4-3Ms39w 1-6Sd6w 6-1Ms31e
13AraumiIsenoumi1987/01/06 (44)2005.03Ms33Ms41w 3-4Ms49w 4-3Ms43e 4-3Ms33e 0-7Sd8w 6-1Ms33e
3NaoeOguruma1986/09/23 (48)2009.01Ms34Sd3w 4-3Ms57e 5-2Ms43w 3-4Ms51w 4-3Ms43w 4-3Ms34e
3KaratsuumiTamanoi1988/08/03 (29)2004.03Ms31Jd116w 5-2Jd64w 7-0 YSd64w 6-1Sd9e 5-2Ms51w 4-3Ms41w
9TakakihoTakanohana1987/01/14 (43)2002.03Ms45Sd22w 4-3Sd12e 2-5Sd36e 4-3Sd21w 4-3Sd8e 5-2Ms45w
2SeiroShikoroyama1988/08/18 (27)2005.07Ms37Ms53e 4-3Ms46w 4-3Ms40e 0-5-2Sd15w 5-2Ms56e 4-3Ms46w
10FukugorikiArashio1988/03/02 (31)2005.11Ms49Jk29w 6-1Jd61w 6-1Sd93w 6-1Sd34w 5-2Sd15e 5-2Ms49w
5NankairikiKitanoumi1987/10/16 (36)2003.03Ms28Ms57e 5-2Ms42e 4-3Ms37e 3-4Ms46e 2-5Sd7e 4-3Ms56e
4TokachiumiHakkaku1987/04/09 (42)2003.03Ms42Sd4w 4-3Ms57w 3-4Sd11e 5-2Ms50e 4-3Ms42e 1-3-3Sd3w
1RendaiyamaKitanoumi1988/01/12 (34)2006.03Ms46Sd8w 2-5Sd37e 5-2Sd10w 3-4Sd24w 5-2Ms59e 3-4Sd5w
1TorugawaMinezaki1987/08/26 (37)2006.03Ms59Sd30w 3-4Sd46e 4-3Sd32e 3-4Sd50e 6-1Ms59w 3-4Sd6e
1MigikataagariOtake1988/06/08 (30)2004.03Ms48Sd34e 5-2Sd14w 3-4Sd28e 4-3Sd16e 4-3Sd3e 3-4Sd10e
8WakarikidoMatsugane1986/12/23 (45)2002.03Ms34Ms47e 4-3Ms40e 0-5-2Sd15w 3-4Sd28w 3-4Sd48e 5-2Sd21e
6OkinofujiHakkaku1988/01/26 (33)2006.03Ms51Sd28e 4-3Sd17w 2-5Sd42e 4-3Sd27e 3-4Sd43w 4-3Sd26w
1MasunofujiNakamura1987/10/24 (35)2005.11Ms52Sd78e 6-1Sd20w 4-3Sd8e 2-5Sd32w 5-2Sd9w 2-5Sd37e
2OtaKitanoumi1987/08/08 (38)2003.03Ms48Sd36e 2-5Sd62w 6-1Sd8w 5-2Ms48w 1-6Sd21w 3-4Sd39e

In case you're wondering why almost everybody moved up: The five guys who turned 24 in the last two months and left the list are a rather interesting bunch, consisting of the collegiate trio of highly regarded Aoki, not quite as highly regarded Sakaguchi, and fairly unregarded Aisaka, plus often-injured Mongolian Arawashi and lanky semi-prospect Kitaharima. All but Aisaka were ranked in the upper half of makushita. The group that exited after Natsu basho also featured a couple of interesting names among its six members, namely Aoiyama and high-makushita regular Satsumahibiki. Losing 11 rikishi in just two basho seems to have been unusual...previewing the next few basho cycles there should be only 2 or 3 rikishi on average who turn 24 and drop out.

#25 Asashosakari

Asashosakari

    Sumo is a very good thing. Though better with affordable video.

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Posted 26 September 2010 - 20:22

Aki summary: Last basho's 2-5 (following 8 straight KK) must have fired up Takayasu pretty good...nice yusho! (Neener, neener...) Not to be outdone, even younger Masunoyama also secured his promotion with a strong 5-2 record. I think Takayasu will get the higher rank in juryo next time, so he's officially the first sekitori from the Heisei era.

Further down the rankings the major bright spot was provided with a 6-1 by Tochiyashiki who appears to be fully healthy again right as he'd finally made it back toward his career-high rank. IIRC he came in with a reputation as the best high-schooler of the 2008 class, so perhaps he'll be able to continue with the breakout performances.

Heisei Hopefuls for Aki 2010 - current yardstick: Masuraumi (1988/10/15, debut 2004.03, shin-juryo 2010.03)

Rikishi

Heya

DOB (Rank)

Debut

HiRk

2009.11

2010.01

2010.03

2010.05

2010.07

2010.09

MasunoyamaChiganoura1990/11/01 (6)2006.07Ms3Ms32w 3-4Ms38e 4-3Ms32w 4-3Ms25e 6-1Ms9e 4-3Ms3e 5-2
TakayasuNaruto1990/02/28 (13)2005.03Ms6Ms27e 4-3Ms22w 4-3Ms18w 5-2Ms10w 4-3Ms6e 2-5Ms13w 7-0 Y
TakanoiwaTakanohana1990/02/26 (14)2008.11Ms13Sd14w 7-0 YMs13w 3-4Ms19e 3-4Ms26e 2-5Ms45e 6-1Ms19e 3-4
TakatoshiTakanohana1990/04/19 (9)2009.01Ms23Sd93w 6-1Sd34e 4-3Sd20e 4-3Sd10e 2-5Sd35w 7-0 YMs23e 2-5
KumagaiIsenoumi1990/08/25 (7)2006.03Ms31Sd19e 5-2Ms58e 4-3Ms50e 1-6Sd21e 4-3Sd7w 6-1Ms31w 3-4
AsahishoOshima1989/07/21 (18)2005.03Ms32Sd22e 4-3Sd11e 3-4Sd23e 3-4Sd39e 6-1Ms52e 5-2Ms32e 3-4
TochiyashikiKasugano1989/07/07 (22)2008.03Ms30Ms30e 0-0-7Sd10w 4-3Ms60e 5-2Ms43e 3-4Ms52w 5-2Ms32w 6-1
BugendaiMusashigawa1989/01/21 (25)2004.05Ms35Ms47w 2-5Sd10e 5-2Ms52w 4-3Ms43w 3-4Ms53e 5-2Ms35w 2-5
ChiyonokuniKokonoe1990/07/10 (8)2006.05Ms20Sd18e 4-3Sd8e 4-3Ms58e 6-1Ms24e 4-3Ms20w 2-5Ms36e 3-4
MankajoKasugayama1990/02/10 (15)2005.03Ms37Ms52w 3-4Sd4w 2-5Sd27e 5-2Sd2w 4-3Ms54e 5-2Ms37e 1-6
RyudenTakadagawa1990/11/10 (5)2006.03Ms9Ms15e 5-2Ms9w 3-4Ms15e 2-5Ms29e 4-3Ms24w 2-5Ms39e 3-4
ChiyoarashiKokonoe1991/07/12 (1)2007.03Ms37Ms57w 4-3Ms50w 0-7Sd25w 4-3Sd13w 6-1Ms37e 3-4Ms44w 4-3
TochinohamaKasugano1989/01/29 (24)2007.03Ms47Sd62w 2-4-1Sd91e 5-2Sd58e 6-1Sd5w 4-3Ms56w 4-3Ms47w 4-3
TamadaikiKataonami1988/11/02 (26)2007.03Ms24Ms31w 4-3Ms25e 3-4Ms32e 4-3Ms24w 3-4Ms33e 2-5Ms48e 2-5
DewahayateDewanoumi1989/01/31 (23)2004.03Ms50Sd26w 4-3Sd15w 4-3Sd5w 2-5Sd29e 4-3Sd16w 5-2Ms50w 3-4
KawanariOguruma1991/07/07 (2)2007.03Ms38Ms54e 4-3Ms47w 3-4Ms54e 2-5Sd16w 4-3Sd3w 4-3Ms51e 4-3
TokizakuraNakamura1989/07/10 (21)2005.03Ms35Sd14e 4-3Sd5e 4-3Ms56e 5-2Ms38e 3-4Ms47e 3-4Ms51w 3-4
HishofujiNakamura1989/07/14 (19)2005.03Ms29Ms59e 4-3Ms52w 5-2Ms39w 3-4Ms47w 4-3Ms40e 2-5Ms54e 5-2
KyokutaiseiOshima1989/10/18 (16)2008.01Ms54Sd92e 4-3Sd74w 5-2Sd42w 3-4Sd57w 4-3Sd43e 6-1Ms54w 1-6
KotoyukiSadogatake1991/04/02 (3)2008.03Ms26Ms51w 5-2Ms37w 5-1-1Ms26w 2-5Ms40w 3-4Ms51e 3-4Ms56w 5-2
TakageppoTakanohana1990/04/19 (9)2009.01Ms58Sd48w 4-3Sd34w 4-3Sd20w 5-2Ms59e 2-5Sd23w 5-2Ms58e 3-4
ByakkoNakamura1989/07/11 (20)2005.03Ms53Sd36w 4-3Sd22e 3-4Sd36w 5-2Sd13e 5-2Ms53w 3-4Ms59e 4-3
KeiOnomatsu1990/03/10 (11)2008.01Ms58Sd27e 4-3Sd16w 3-4Sd30e 3-4Sd46e 6-1Ms58e 3-4Sd5e 5-2
KairyuTagonoura1990/03/01 (12)2005.03Ms29Sd6e 4-3Ms59e 6-1Ms29e 1-6Ms53w 3-4Sd5w 3-4Sd15e 5-2
KotokenseiSadogatake1991/01/06 (4)2006.03Ms50Sd13w 3-4Sd26e 3-4Sd41w 3-4Sd55w 2-5Sd83w 6-1Sd26e 3-4
HigoarashiKise1989/08/20 (17)2006.05Ms53Sd39w 4-3Sd24w 4-3Sd11w 3-4Sd26e 4-3Sd14e 3-4Sd29w 4-3

No less than five prospects will be making their makushita debuts thanks to a slew of 6-1 records:

Rikishi

Heya

DOB

Debut

HiRk

2009.11

2010.01

2010.03

2010.05

2010.07

2010.09

SasakiyamaKitanoumi1991/06/122010.01Sd11 Mz 3-0Jk20w 7-0 YJd20e 7-0 DSd25e 4-3Sd11w 4-3
ChiyomaruKokonoe1991/04/172007.05Sd14Sd26e 2-5Sd54e 5-2Sd26e 4-3Sd14w 3-4Sd30w 4-3Sd15w 5-2
AsabenkeiTakasago1989/02/122007.03Sd20Sd54e 4-3Sd39w 3-4Sd53w 3-4Sd66e 5-2Sd39w 4-3Sd21w 6-1
SaishinChiganoura1991/11/122010.01Sd34 Mz 3-0Jk21e 6-1Jd49w 7-0 YSd49w 4-3Sd34e 6-1
AmatsuOnomatsu1990/04/032009.01Sd24Sd63w 4-3Sd45e 4-3Sd30w 3-4Sd48e 5-2Sd24w 3-4Sd42e 6-1

Of course, all of this is before taking into account that Takayasu and Masunoyama will be resetting the yardstick in a big way for Kyushu, so Asabenkei and Amatsu will be making the move to the overflow list along with nearly everyone from the table above. As Masunoyama was the 5th-youngest rikishi on watch, the new main list will only consist of: Saishin (new youngest rikishi!), Chiyoarashi, Kawanari, Sasakiyama, Chiyomaru, Kotoyuki, Kotokensei and Ryuden.

Edited by Asashosakari, 26 September 2010 - 20:40.



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